Biggest Underdogs System

[topdogpicks]

I developed a model (actually 7 models, amalgameted) during the 2018 MLB Season for betting on the largest underdogs each day.

I'll try and update this thread every day with picks and results.

Here's they model's performance in 2018:
https://topdogs.substack.com/p/the-top-dogs-system-in-2018


Here's how it's done so far in 2019:
https://topdogs.substack.com/p/mlb-picks-and-results-wed-apr-3-free

 

[topdogpicks]

So, forgot to post yesterday's results and todays picks until just now - only the SD game in my picks below has played.

I'll be more prompt going forward. Sorry bout that.

-------------------------------

Smart staking on the biggest underdogs continues to pay off. Thursday was the 6th day in a row with a daily profit.
I don't expect this to last, and expect this to settle down into making a profit 4-5 days/week, on average....


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
2W-4L
25u invested
1.70u profit
6.80% ROI


2019 SEASON:
48 bets
23W-25L
306u invested
104.20 profit
34.05% ROI


YESTERDAY:
BAL 2.75
TOR 2.50
TEX 2.35 - W
WAS 2.10 - W
CIN 2.05
CHI 2.05


TODAY'S UNDERDOGS:
SD 2.55 - 3.00u
OAK 2.50 - 5.00u
MIN 2.40 - 6.00u
TOR 2.40 - 6.00u
MIA 2.40 - 4.00u
CIN 2.15 - 1.00u


(details and graphs and stats - this post is long enough already)

 

[topdogpicks]

It wasn’t going to last forever, but our 6 day profit streak has unfortunately come to an end. Thanks to the Padres (the largest underdog yesterday) beating the Cards, the day wasn’t a complete loss.
YESTERDAY:
6 bets
1W-5L
25u invested
17.35u loss
-69.40% ROI
2019 SEASON:
54 bets
24W-30L
331u invested
86.85u profit
26.23% ROI
YESTERDAY:
SD 2.55 3.00 - W (thank you Padres!)
OAK 2.50 5.00
MIN 2.40 6.00
TOR 2.40 6.00
MIA 2.40 4.00
CIN 2.15 1.00
TODAY'S UNDERDOGS: (all moneyline)
TOR 2.60
BAL 2.50
MIA 2.35
MIN 2.25
OAK 2.25
TEX 2.20
More data and tables and graphs are here.
I'll try to come back here before games and post them (or at least before the earliest game).
Alternatively, shoot me a message? (I'm new to this forum so don't know how messages work) and I'll set you up with a week on the daily email I send each morning that has unit sizes.

 

[topdogpicks]

oof, I need to work on my text spacing on the above - is there an edit button somewhere.

I'm new here.

 

[topdogpicks]

Pulled out a small profit on 2 wins out of 6 bets yesterday. Always a good feeling. Not as good as 4 or 5/6, but still good.

YESTERDAY:
6 bets
2W-4L
57u invested
4.95u profit
8.68% ROI


2019 SEASON:
60 bets
26W-34L
388u invested
91.80u profit
23.66% ROI



YESTERDAY:
TOR - 2.60 - 6u
BAL - 2.50 - 10u
MIA - 2.35 - 12u - W
MIN - 2.25 - 15u - W
OAK - 2.25 - 10u
TEX - 2.20 - 4u



TODAY'S UNDERDOGS: (all moneyline)
OAK - 2.55 - 4u
BAL - 2.50 - 7u
MIA - 2.50 - 8u
TOR - 2.35 - 13u
TEX - 2.35 - 11u
CIN - 2.25 - 6u



More details and tables and graphs are here.


Shoot me a DM and I'll set you up with a week on the daily email I send each morning that has unit sizes.

 

[topdogpicks]

Yes, I'll even post my results when I have a day when ALL of my picks crash and burn.


My philosophy is that any system shares as much data as possible, even when it hits bad days or losing streaks.


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
0W-6L
49u invested
-49u loss
-100% ROI


2019 SEASON:
66 bets
26W-40L
437u invested
42.80u profit
9.79% ROI


YESTERDAY:
OAK - 2.55 - 4u - L
BAL - 2.50 - 7u - L
MIA - 2.50 - 8u - L
TOR - 2.35 - 13u - L
TEX - 2.35 - 11u - L
CIN - 2.25 - 6u - L


TODAY:
Looking at these 6 today. Will come back and post unit sizes before the games tonight (except the Sox, which play at 2 pm EST)
CWS
NYY
WAS
SD
BAL
STL


Details and tables and graphs are here.


Shoot me a DM and I'll set you up with a week on the daily morning email I send each morning that has unit sizes.

 

[topdogpicks]

3/6 yesterday. Made up a bit of ground from that 0/6 Sunday.
(unit size is 0.1% of bankroll)


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
3W-3L
99u invested
18.35u profit
18.54% ROI


2019 SEASON:
72 bets
29W-43L
536u invested
61.15u profit
11.41% ROI


YESTERDAY:
CWS - 2.35 - 9u
NYY - 2.30 - 16u
WAS - 2.15 - 19u
SD - 2.15 - 25u - W
BAL - 2.15 - 21u - W
STL - 2.05 - 9u - W


TODAY:
Looking at these 6 today:
TOR 3.00
MIN 2.85
NYY 2.65
MIA 2.60
DET 2.45
CWS 2.35



Details and tables and graphs are here.



Shoot me a DM and I'll set you up with a week on the daily morning email I send each morning that has unit sizes.

 

[topdogpicks]

2/6 yesterday, but still a 22% ROI. Sweet.
(unit size is 0.1% of bankroll)


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
2W-4L
69u invested
15.45u profit
22.39% ROI


2019 SEASON:
78 bets
31W-47L
605u invested
76.60u profit
12.66% ROI


YESTERDAY:
TOR 3.00 - 12u - W
MIN 2.85 - 17u - W
NYY 2.65 - 18u
MIA 2.60 - 13u
DET 2.45 - 8u
CWS 2.35 1u


TODAY:
Looking at these underdogs for today... lines are still moving around a lot.


MIN 2.80
PIT 2.50
WAS 2.50
CWS 2.35
MIA 2.35
TEX 2.35


Details and tables and graphs are here.


Shoot me a DM and I'll set you up with a week on the daily morning email I send each morning that has unit sizes.

 

[topdogpicks]

3/6 underdogs won last night. 11/14 days with a profit!

3/6 of our underdogs won yesterday. Keep it rolling.


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
3W-3L
71u invested
13.70u profit
19.30% ROI


2019 SEASON:
84 bets
34W-50L
676u invested
90.30u profit
13.36% ROI


YESTERDAY:
MIN - 2.80 - 7u
PIT - 2.50 - 15u - W
WAS - 2.50 - 17u - W
CWS - 2.35 - 18u
MIA - 2.35 - 12u
TEX - 2.35 - 2u - W

TODAY:
TOR - 2.65
MIA - 2.40
BAL - 2.40
STL - 2.20
KC - 2.10
DET - 2.10


Daily and YTD details and tables and graphs are here.

Send me a DM and I'll set you up with a week on the daily morning email I send each morning that has unit sizes.


(unit size is 0.1% of bankroll - so, if your units are $1, having a bankroll of 1000 is ideal - last year when testing this system, I needed a max of 256 units on any one day, but I'm financially conservative, so having a much larger bankroll is ideal)

 

[topdogpicks]

THURSDAY RESULTS:

1/6 of our underdogs won yesterday.


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
1W-5L
64u invested
-28.80u loss
-45.00% ROI


2019 SEASON:
90 bets
35W-55L
740u invested
61.50u profit
8.31% ROI


YESTERDAY:
TOR - 2.65 - 6u
MIA - 2.40 - 11u
BAL - 2.40 - 14u
STL - 2.20 - 16u - W
KC - 2.10 - 14u
DET - 2.10 - 3u


TODAY:
BAL 3.15
CWS 3.00
PIT 2.49
MIA 2.40
LAA 2.30
KC 2.26


Daily and YTD details and tables and graphs are at this link but also below.


I'll put unit sizes on Saturdays and Sundays - just too busy during the week to come back before each game.. BUT send me a DM and I'll set you up with a week on the daily morning email I send each morning that has unit sizes.


(unit size is 0.1% of bankroll - so, if your units are $1, having a bankroll of 1000 is ideal - last year when testing this system, I needed a max of 256 units on any one day, but I'm financially conservative, so having a much larger bankroll is ideal)

 

[topdogpicks]

3/6 of our underdogs won yesterday. Their larger lines = profits.

Daily and YTD details and tables and graphs are here.


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
3W-3L
79u invested
11.39u profit
14.39% ROI


2019 SEASON:
96 bets
38W-58L
819u invested
72.87u profit
8.90% ROI


YESTERDAY:
BAL - 3.15 - 7u
CWS - 3.00 - 13u - W
PIT - 2.49 - 17u - W
MIA - 2.40 - 20u
LAA - 2.30 - 18u
KC - 2.26 - 4u - W


TODAY:
BAL - 3.20 - 5u
DET - 2.75 - 8u
TOR - 2.60 - 10u
CWS - 2.55 - 11u
LAA - 2.55 - 9u
SEA - 2.55 - 2u


Daily and YTD details and tables and graphs are here.


I'll put unit sizes on Saturdays and Sundays - just too busy during the week to come back before each game.. BUT send me a DM and I'll set you up with a week on the daily morning email I send each morning that has unit sizes.
(unit size is 0.1% of bankroll - so, if your units are $1, having a bankroll of 1000 is ideal - last year when testing this system, I needed a max of 256 units on any one day, but I'm financially conservative, so having a much larger bankroll is ideal)

 

[topdogpicks]

A good day with the big underdogs yesterday.

Daily Details and Season Performance Data.


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
3W-3L
45u invested
19.95u profit
44.33% ROI


2019 SEASON (so far):
102 bets
41W-61L
864u invested
92.82u profit
10.74% ROI


YESTERDAY:
BAL - 3.20 - 5u - W
DET - 2.75 - 8u
TOR - 2.60 - 10u - W
CWS - 2.55 - 11u
LAA - 2.55 - 9u - W
SEA - 2.55 - 2u


TODAY:
BAL - 3.35 - 4u
DET - 2.90 - 6u
PIT - 2.75 - 8u
CWS - 2.65 - 8u
MIA - 2.60 - 6u
SEA - 2.45 - 1u


Daily Details and Season Performance Data.

 

[topdogpicks]

2 of 6 winners yesterday, yet still a 30%+ ROI.

Daily Details and Season Performance Data.


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
2W-4L
33u invested
10.20u profit
30.91% ROI


2019 SEASON (so far):
108 bets
43W-65L
897u invested
103.02u profit
11.48% ROI


YESTERDAY:
BAL - 3.35 - 4u
DET - 2.90 - 6u
PIT - 2.75 - 8u - W
CWS - 2.65 - 8u - W
MIA - 2.60 - 6u
SEA - 2.45 - 1u



Daily Details and Season Performance Data.

Daily Details and Season Performance Data.

 

[topdogpicks]

Forgot to pop in today's picks:

TODAY:

• BAL - 3.10 - 3u
• CIN - 2.50 - 5u
• STL - 2.20 - 6u
• KC - 2.15 - 6u
• TOR - 2.05 - 4u
• SEA - 2.00 - 1u

 

[topdogpicks]

2 of 6 winners yesterday.

I'll come back this afternoon and add in today's picks.

Daily Details and Season Performance Data.


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
2W-4L
33u invested
-7.50u loss
-30.00% ROI


2019 SEASON (so far):
114 bets
45W-69L
922u invested
95.52u profit
10.36 ROI

YESTERDAY:

BAL - 3.10 - 3u - W
CIN - 2.50 - 5u
STL - 2.20 - 6u
KC - 2.15 - 6u
TOR - 2.05 - 4u - W
SEA - 2.00 - 1u



Daily Details and Season Performance Data.

 

[topdogpicks]

I forgot to add graphs to the above post. Sorry.

Daily Details and Season Performance Data.

Daily Details and Season Performance Data.

 

[topdogpicks]

3 of 6 winners yesterday.


I'll come back this afternoon and add in today's picks.


More info and graphs and stuff


YESTERDAY:


6 bets
3W-3L
35u invested
9.80u profit
28.00% ROI



2019 SEASON (so far):


120 bets
48W-72L
957u invested
105.32u profit
11.01% ROI


YESTERDAY:


BAL - 3.15 - 4u
SF - 2.75 - 7u - W
CIN - 2.60 - 8u
ARI - 2.35 - 9u - W
OAK - 2.35 - 5u
TOR - 2.20 - 2u - W


More info and graphs and stuff

More info and graphs and stuff

 

[topdogpicks]

Today's plays from my system:

ARI - 2.50 - 4u
CIN - 2.40 - 7u
MIA - 2.35 - 8u
TOR - 2.30 - 9u
SF - 2.25 - 5u
STL - 2.20 - 2u


Get a morning email every day with these picks (and lots of performance data and graphs)

 

[topdogpicks]

2 of our 6 underdogs won yesterday.




I'll come back this afternoon and add in today's picks.




More info and graphs and stuff




YESTERDAY:




6 bets
3W-3L
35u invested
-20.60u loss
-58.86% ROI






2019 SEASON (so far):




126 bets
50W-76L
992u invested
84.72u profit
8.54% ROI




YESTERDAY:


ARI - 2.50 - 4u - W
CIN - 2.40 - 7u
MIA - 2.35 - 8u
TOR - 2.30 - 9u
SF - 2.25 - 5u
STL - 2.20 - 2u - W




More info and graphs and stuff

 

[topdogpicks]

Here's what I'm playing today:


SF - 2.90 - 5u
KC - 2.80 - 9u
TOR - 2.70 - 11u
CIN - 2.50 - 12u
SEA - 2.10 - 8u
MIL - 2.00 - 2u